A Disruptive Approach to 100% Decarbonization of the Global Energy System by 2050

Navigant presents decarbonization scenario for an energy transition in line with the 1.5°C target

Ecofys, a Navigant company, has investigated what the increased ambition of limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C rather than 2°C means for the global energy system. In a paper, the energy experts present a transformation scenario that would see the global energy system fully decarbonized by 2050.

The findings indicate that strong energy efficiency improvements could bring global energy use below current levels to 435 EJ, a large contrast to business as usual growth to over 800 EJ. While the total primary energy supply in the scenario is decreasing slightly, electricity demand is expected to almost triple. Navigant estimates that all this energy can be supplied from zero-carbon or low carbon energy sources.

If society kept on emitting CO2 at the current pace, the carbon budget to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C would be exceeded in one or two decades. The energy experts therefore explored options for a fast energy system transformation and developed a scenario against a background of increasing population and growing demand for energy services like space heating and cooling, transportation, and materials production.

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