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Navigant Wins Consultancy of the Year Award - Gulf Coast Region

Wed, 27 Mar 2013 11:00:00 -0500

Navigant was named Consultancy of the Year – Gulf Coast Region by Oil and Gas Awards based on an entry submitted on its recent work for the Gulf LNG Liquefaction Company, LLC (GLNG) which submitted its application for LNG export on August 31, 2012.

Read Navigant’s submitted entry below:

CONSULTANCY OF THE YEAR – GULF COAST

Navigant is submitting nomination for consideration for Consultancy of the Year for 2012 in the Gulf region, based on its work for the Gulf LNG Liquefaction Company, LLC (GLNG) that submitted its application for LNG export on August 31, 2012. At this time, GLNG submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy an application for long-term authorization to export up to 11.5 million tons per annum of liquefied natural gas (approximately 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day) from domestic sources for a 20 year period. The project is scheduled to commence deliveries at the end of 2018 from a terminal to be located in Jackson County, Mississippi, near the City of Pascagoula, MS.

Successes

Navigant’s work for the American Clean Skies Foundation in 2008, established Navigant as a reputable leader in the area of natural gas shale and unconventional gas in North America. By mid-2010, Cheniere Energy engaged Navigant to provide an analysis that would be used by Cheniere for its ground-breaking application to the DOE for approval to export of LNG from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG export project in Texas. Despite several other DOE applications that have been submitted since, including the current GLNG application this year, the Cheniere Sabine Pass LNG export project remains the only LNG export project to have received DOE approval to export to non-Free Trade countries. Navigant’s successful analysis played an instrumental part of the favorable DOE Cheniere decision and the “lessons learned” from Cheniere will hopefully carry forward as part of the GLNG project application, as well as several other LNG export projects, that are currently before the DOE pending a decision.

Expertise

In addition to the successful Cheniere Sabine Pass application, Navigant has supported seven other U.S. LNG export projects, including the GLNG project, to provide similar in-depth analyses on the construction of LNG export facilities. As such, Navigant has become a recognized leader in the area of providing independent third party market impact studies for LNG project developers planning on filing applications for the export of LNG to the DOE. Navigant has assisted these large infrastructure projects that range in size from capital costs of $3 Billion to $10 Billion by using its proprietary natural gas market modeling and forecasting tools. These tools allow Navigant to perform a detailed market analysis that is unique to each project and allows the client to better make informed decisions on specific LNG export projects. In addition, the analysis serves as an independent third party analysis for the DOE review and application process. In fact, the methodology and analysis first developed by Navigant, has proven to be key in the approach taken by other projects and towards answering questions of interest to the DOE and others, including matters as important as national security, energy independence, and resource sustainability.

Relevance

In its submission for consideration of Oil and Gas Consultant of the Year in the Gulf Coast Region, Navigant draws reference to the importance of its work for GLNG and to the broader oil and natural industry and to the country as a whole. In an era of expected ongoing gas production successes, particularly in the development of North American natural gas shale, LNG exports hold promise to as an important emerging new market to assure the ongoing development of natural gas as a clean and abundant energy source for the future. Navigant’s understanding and early work done in the natural gas and shale area has proven invaluable for GLNG and for other LNG projects. Navigant’s work in assessing the impact of LNG exports should over the next few years provide new global market opportunities for natural gas as North America becomes more connected to the global market. As this occurs, LNG exports will become an important piece of a new natural gas market structure in North America that will in turn help assure a healthy upstream natural gas producing sector. This will be for the benefit of the natural gas industry, the economy, and for the country as a whole over the long-term.

Click here for more information

Solar Outlook Newsletter

Sat, 01 Sep 2012 20:52:00 -0500

Solar Outlook is a market newsletter covering the photovoltaic (PV), CSP and CPV Industries. Content includes reports on current industry activities and provides expert and independent analysis of important events that directly or indirectly impact the PV industry. The publication also includes coverage of major conferences, interviews with industry leaders, and guest editorials by respected industry figures.

The Solar Outlook newsletter is an invaluable resource for executives and managers making strategic decisions related to the competitive solar industry. This is particularly true as multi-megawatt utility scale systems pit flat plate, CSP and CPV technologies against each other while gaining a competitive edge over conventional energy sources.

For more on this month's issue and purchasing information, click here.

NG Market Notes - Simplifying the Natural Gas Story (May 2012)

Tue, 15 May 2012 08:56:00 -0500

In the May 2012 issue of NG Market Notes, Director Rick Smead talks about simplifying the natural gas discussion—specifically, showing that despite confusing headline-making stories, the fundamentals underlying today's natural gas environment indicate a healthy market outlook with ample supplies at stable prices. Cutting through all the complexity and understanding what natural gas can do for the nation, and the world, starts with answering three key questions:

Is there enough accessible natural gas to support widespread use for an extended period of time?
Can the natural gas resource go to market at reasonable prices, and quickly enough to support aggressive growth in use?
Do current dislocations in the market undermine the ability to come to market at stable prices?

Click here to read the full article.

NG Market Notes - The Resurgence of the U.S. Petrochemical Sector and the Natural Gas Industry (April 2012)

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0500

In the April 2012 issue of NG Market Notes, Director Gordon Pickering discusses the benefits to the U.S. petrochemical industry that can result from the increased demand for natural gas represented by LNG exports.

Natural gas has been proven to be abundant in North America. Although resource estimates vary by individual industry and governmental reporting agency, the basis fact is consistently clear – natural gas in North America (primarily from the growth of shale gas) is expected to be sufficiently for the foreseeable future. The fact that shale gas production has repeatedly exceeded many forecasters’ estimates, illustrates the still limited data and understanding of the vast, low-permeability gas shale reservoirs.

With a large and growing natural gas supply, the key challenge becomes managing the resource and turning it into a sustainable industry. Many would agree the industry and regulators have yet to find a solution to guide the industry for the benefit of the country. As seen in the first quarter of 2012, surplus gas production, combined with weak demand (primarily due to unseasonably warm weather), can significantly depress that natural gas market.

Click here to read the full article.

Money on the Table: How Utility Program Planning Practices are Failing to Harness the Full Value of Demand Response

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0600

Demand response (DR) is moving from legacy or fringe utility programs to essential components of the utility and ISO resource mix—even competing head-to-head with generation in ISO markets. But many utilities still keep DR in a silo of the DSM program group where system planners and grid operators have little input to program design and little confidence in the value of securing or dispatching the DR resource.

This paper proposes the hypothesis that common practices at U.S. utilities in developing and utilizing DR programs are insufficient to ensure the continued expansion of DR resources that will be used by system planners to defer alternative capacity investments and by grid operators as a substitute for the dispatch of peaking units.

Citing anecdotes from a variety of utility programs, the author makes the case that most utilities are not fully realizing the potential value of their DR resources.

The Fallacy of Treading Water

Mon, 20 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0600

John Walker’s latest article published in the February 2012 issue of Defense News examines the impact of the global economy on research and development budgets, and what could happen to technological advances.

Europe is in crisis, Asia is slowing and our own economy is struggling with mounting debt and weakened fundamentals. As fiscal pressures build, research budgets have come under attack as a great place to find savings with the lowest near-term pain associated with potential reductions. Companies are faced with this hard fact more and more and are left with little options. What is the best course of action? Terminate an equivalent investment in research that will not amount to anything for years to come? Do the former and people will scream bloody murder. Do the latter and there will be the inevitable outcries, but the stakeholder community will be smaller and the trickle-down economic impact lower.

Click here to read complete article.

NG Market Notes - Drilling Redirection, Supply Abundance, and Exports (January 2012)

Mon, 02 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

There has been a lot of speculation about the effect of low prices on U.S. natural gas exploration activity. Navigant’s Director Rick Smead explores the concern that LNG exports will drive domestic natural gas prices upward.

According to Smead, consumers are enjoying extremely low natural gas prices at the moment, but these low prices have begun to push horizontal gas rig counts lower. If prices stay below the $5.00 to $6.00 per MMBtu that the industry has said is needed to stabilize ongoing supply development, we need significant new demand. LNG exports could play an important role in that regard.

One Paradigm Shift to Another

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 13:29:00 -0600

The rapid increase in North American unconventional gas supply has had a profound impact on the U.S. and Canadian liquefied natural gas industry, causing a paradigm shift away from imports. The U.S. and Canada are now looking to export LNG. Unconventional gas may have a similar transformative effect on other gas markets around the world. Director Gordon Pickering explores some of the implications of the potential development of shale gas in countries that have previously not had producible natural gas resources.

Winter’s Coming – Is the Natural Gas Industry Ready? And, What About Next year, and the Next?

Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

In the November 2011 issue of NG Market Notes, Bob Gibb looks at the state of the natural gas market and finds things in good shape. The future looks strong, but there are a few issues that the industry will have to grapple with if the U.S. is to leverage the full potential of natural gas as a tool to achieve energy independence.

San Bruno, One Year Later

Fri, 14 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The National Transportation Safety Board has issued its full report on the San Bruno pipeline accident. Meanwhile, a regulatory filing from a union at Southern California Gas Company indicates that pipeline problems may not be confined to PG&E, which owns the line in San Bruno. Opportunities for improvement exist across the industry - not just those that have been in the media spotlight or working through regulatory filings. Navigant looks at the implications in the October 2011 issue of NG Market Notes.

Chinese Turbine Makers Set Sights on U.S. Market

Sat, 01 Oct 2011 15:08:00 -0500

For much of the last two decades, European wind turbine manufacturers and one U.S.-based company – GE – have dominated the global market. In recent years, however, Chinese original equipment manufacturers have steadily increased their market share.

In an October 2011 article published in North American WindPower, Navigant wind experts Bruce Hamilton and Andy Wickless discuss the challenges Chinese turbine manufacturers are facing in the North American market.

For more information about international wind markets, please review information for BTM Consult’s “International Wind Energy Development: World Market Update 2010” report.

How Much Natural Gas Does the Nation Have?

Thu, 01 Sep 2011 14:56:00 -0500

The U.S. natural gas industry has gone through quite a transformation over the last three years. When Navigant released its North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment in July 2008, our high-end estimate of the ultimately recoverable resources in the United States, was a 47 percent increase over the previous high industry estimate. However, as the nation and the industry have moved up the learning curve around natural gas supply and particularly shale gas, Navigant’s high-end estimate has become conservative.

Late in July, the United States Geological Survey increased its estimate of undiscovered gas in the Marcellus by a factor of 42, yet some media reported that the U.S. government had “slashed” its reserve estimate for the Marcellus by 80 percent. How can that be? Director Rick Smead gets to the bottom of the contradiction in the September 2011 issue of NG Market Notes, and finds that the size and market promise of the Marcellus resource are very much intact.

Lessons from the Natural Gas Market: The Alaska Gas Shortage

Wed, 10 Aug 2011 13:23:00 -0500

At the midpoint of 2011, growing gas production continues to be the dominant factor in the U.S. natural gas market. Supply has shown consistent, even explosive growth over the last three to four years, and the gas shale revolution has continued to create a structural surplus in the U.S. gas market. This surplus is not a result of a cyclical downturn in demand or an onslaught of new LNG supply from new liquefaction capacity as is the situation in the rest of the world, but of an abundance of domestic production. This “game changer” that we first identified back in mid-2008 continues to shape the market, influencing prices and chasing away imports on both land and water and even replacing conventional production.

In the August 2011 issue of NG Market Notes, Director Gordon Pickering discusses the outlook for the natural gas market for the rest of the 2011 and beyond

The U.S. Natural Gas Market is About to Get Complicated

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

In his recurring column in Natural Gas & Electricity, Navigant’s Rick Smead addresses the series of late-June articles in the New York Times questioning U.S. shale gas abundance, and how the articles were symptomatic of just how bipolar some of the debate around natural gas can get.

According to Mr. Smead, “The same guys who had long been bemoaning the rapid pace of development suddenly appeared to think we could not develop fast enough. The same guys who were appalled when natural gas prices went to double digits accused the industry of an “Enron-style” ponzi scheme for selling gas at prices that might be too low for sustained development.”

The article provides readers with a clear look at the current state of the natural gas market and related good news.

Large-Scale PV Integration Study

Sat, 30 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The amount of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation added to electric utility grids in the Southwest has been growing and is expected to be robust. Until recently, renewable generation has not significantly altered the operation of, or required major expansion to, the electric grid. However, there is increasing concern that the variable power produced by large-scale PV generation will strain the ability of the current grid to deliver the power reliably.

The territory served by NV Energy’s southern Nevada system is well suited for large-scale PV systems. Due to the large number of pending interconnection requests, the Company in early 2010 submitted an application to the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN) requesting approval for funding to evaluate the impacts of PV. The PUCN issued a Compliance Order approving a study of large-scale PV, and subsequently approved a second study to determine how much distributed PV generation (DG) could be installed on NV Energy’s existing distribution system (December 2010 DG Study). The PUCN accepted the EG study’s findings that NV Energy’s distribution system alone is not a limiting factor for new DG capacity, and agreed with the Company’s recommendation that DV should be evaluated as part of the large-scale PV Study.

This study quantifies the impact of variable PV generation output on NV Energy’s system operations, including balancing reserve requirements, and the ability of the existing generation fleet to accommodate increasing amounts of large-scale PV and DG. Because the level of detail in this study exceeds that in earlier industry studies, new and innovative methods were developed to estimate PV output and to perform the technical and economic evaluation.

Utility Business Models in Solar: Opportunities & Trends

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Navigant’s Lisa Frantzis and Shannon Graham provided insight on solar business models for utilities at this year’s Intersolar North America Conference. Their presentation provided an overview of current PV economics, the types of business models currently used, and third party offerings.

While regulated utilities are innovating in distributed solar, uncertainty around key drivers (such as RPS-related challenges and opposition from rate advocates) may dampen activity. Meanwhile, municipal utilities are expanding customer access with new approaches that allow greater consumer access to solar via community solar while minimizing perceived risks.

Non-utility and third-party companies have begun moving into residential markets and are actively providing solar leases and power purchase agreements in the residential market.

Lessons from the Natural Gas Market: The Alaska Gas Shortage

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Despite Alaska’s tremendous reserves, the citizens of Anchorage and environs are facing a natural gas shortage. The problem isn’t the resource, it’s getting the resource out on the ground and into the local distribution system. In July’s NG Market Notes, Associate Director Bob Gibb looks at the history of this problem and what might be done to solve it.

Gas Is Pushed As Successor to Coal

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

During the California Independent Petroleum Association’s Annual Conference, Navigant’s Gordon Pickering and Chris Smith, General Manager for west business development at Shell Energy North America, participated in a panel discussion that shed light on the future of the coal and natural gas industry.

Although coal is still the primary source of generating the country’s electric power, some experts are forecasting that increasing utilization of natural gas resources can soon replace coal as the number one source for energy. Pickering maintains that an incremental shift from coal generation to natural gas would sharply reduce carbon dioxide emission while saving consumers money and minimizing economic upset.

California Sustainability Alliance and City of Santa Monica Release Three Short Sustainability Videos (Press Release)

Mon, 06 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The California Sustainability Alliance, a market transformation program managed by Navigant, and the City of Santa Monica have released three new videos showcasing the City’s sustainability efforts. The City of Santa Monica Leadership in Sustainability Videos feature unique government practices in solar energy, farmers markets, and urban forestry. The videos were created to highlight some of the leadership qualities that led the City of Santa Monica to win the Grand Prize of the 2009 California Sustainability Alliance Awards.

“We are thrilled to be featured in this creative video series from the Alliance. At the City we work hard across many departments and community partnerships to pull off what we do – it’s nice to be able to see the fruits of these efforts so ably presented in the videos. They came out great.” said Dean Kubani, Director of the City of Santa Monica Office of Sustainability and the Environment. “We are proud of our association with the Alliance and hope that efforts like these help introduce similar initiatives in other communities.”

The City of Santa Monica Leadership in Sustainability Videos include:
» Net Zero Energy
» The Value of Trees
» A Tale of Two Carrots

To view all of The City of Santa Monica Leadership in Sustainability Videos, go to:
http://sustainca.org/showcase/santa_monica/features/video

For more information about the California Sustainability Alliance, go to www.sustainca.org.

Incorporating Gas-Fired Generation and Renewables – Looking at the Whole Picture

Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Navigant Energy Director Rick Smead analyzes the opposing views stemming from a March 2011 study released by INGAA Foundation, “Firming Renewable Electric Power Generators: Opportunities and Challenges for Natural Gas Pipelines”, and draws some interesting conclusions in the June 2011 issue of Natural Gas & Electricity Journal.

This study examines the pipeline infrastructure requirements that might be needed to fuel gas-fired generation as a backup for wind and solar power when the availability of the power did not match the load depending on it. The American Wind Energy Association took issue with a number of the assumptions and findings of the study, and believes there was an overstatement of the degree that wind availability diverges from load patterns.

Without touching on the merits of either side of this debate, it is worth noting the implications for the long-standing assumed “partnership” between wind generation and natural gas. For a number of years, the two have been referred to by many as natural partners, for a variety of reasons. Assuming that wind generation needs some level of other generation that can respond quickly to fluctuations in the wind generation’s output, natural gas-fired generation offers several attractive characteristics.

Lessons From the Natural Gas Market: Denali Bows Out

Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

To the surprise of few, one of two competing Alaska pipeline projects is withdrawing its Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pre-file application and will close out operations over the next few months. The exit of Denali-The Alaska Gas Pipeline Project is the latest repercussion from the shale boom. Navigant looks at some possible implications in June's NG Market Notes.

Perspectives on Recent Trends and Challenges in the Wind Energy

Tue, 24 May 2011 00:00:00 -0500

On Tuesday, May 24, Navigant and our newest colleagues from BTM Consult hosted our first annual executive-level breakfast briefing at WindPower 2011 covering our recent wind energy work, including:

U.S. and global wind markets
DOE Loan Guarantee/Section 1603 refundable tax credits
Wind Energy and REC pricing
U.S. offshore wind market trends
The Chinese wind energy market and players

Click here to view the full presentation.

Is U.S. Losing R&D Edge? The New Reality in Science & Technology

Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 -0500

We are all aware of the pressures that budgets are under; the era of endless government research funds is over. To stay ahead, we have to make things that count, either machines or ideas.

The U.S. was an unstoppable force throughout the past century because of its ability to innovate. At the center of that innovation was a philosophy shared by public and private research labs built on tackling hard problems with creative and determined zeal. It’s not that we have lost the ability to innovate, but we don’t always make our investments count.

To stay on top, the U.S. must realign its priorities and focus investment in areas that have the chance to create something other societies want. That means continuing to invest in science and technology (S&T), but we have to be smart about the way we do that. In harsh terms, we cannot afford to spend one dollar on things that will not help the U.S. stand apart from the rest of the world.

NG Market Notes – May 2011

Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Natural gas faces several challenges to its full development and deployment to address the world’s environmental issues. First, there have to be stable enough markets to develop sufficient infrastructure and to incent sufficient drilling for the gas to come forth when it’s needed. Second, of course, shale gas development involves hydraulic fracturing, which is engendering enough public and political concern that resolution of the issues around it has become essential to its unimpaired long-term use. Third, the role of natural gas as the cleanest fossil fuel and potential major contributor to the reduction of man-made greenhouse gases has been challenged in a recent report.

A recent report claims that the full-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of shale gas exceeds those of coal. Navigant Director Rick Smead finds that the report’s conclusions are based on faulty data or assumptions, and are therefore misleading, and that the assertions made by the report should not impair the robust development of the nation’s abundant natural gas resource.

NG Market Notes April 2011

Fri, 01 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been declining for most of the decade, and with the shale revolution, that's not likely to reverse course. In April's NG Market Notes, Associate Director Bob Gibb discusses the situation and offers up an interesting take on what might be done with all that increasingly underutilized offshore pipe. In the Charts section, key industry data is analyzed, providing insight into today's natural gas market. The Legislative and Regulatory Highlights section outlines important developments in the North American legislative and regulatory arenas that are shaping the current market.

NG Market Notes March 2011

Tue, 01 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0600

Will the United States become an exporter of liquefied natural gas? It’s definitely in the realm of possibility. Spurred by the prospects of continued long-term growth in shale gas supply, several LNG companies are considering exports, or have actually filed applications with FERC and the Department of Energy. In the March 2011 issue of NG Market Notes, Navigant’s Gordon Pickering discusses the prospects for U.S.-manufactured LNG exports and their implications, analyzes key industry data that provides insight into today’s natural gas market, and outlines important developments in the North America legislative and regulatory arenas that are shaping the current market.

Distributed Generation Study

Thu, 30 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0600

On July 28, 2010, The Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN) issued a draft Compliance Order to determine how distributed generation (DG) can impact NV Energy’s energy delivery system performance, reliability, distribution operations, and electricity rates. As a result of its significant experience examining DG integration on utility systems in Nevada and the U.S., Navigant was selected by NVE to conduct a study to address the PUCN’s primary objective contained in its Order, summarized in the following question:

‘What is the “maximum amount of DG from renewable energy that can be integrated on the distribution system of the Companies within the existing operating limits?”’

Navigant’s study focused on evaluating the technical and economic impacts of DE on NV Energy’s system and its ratepayers. The study does not address the cost, economics or value of EG from the DE owner’s perspective. Further our investigation focuses on DE installed on NV Energy’s distribution lines (feeders) or customer premises.

NG Market Notes Newsletter

Wed, 01 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0600

In the featured article of the December 2010 issue of Navigant’s NG Market Notes newsletter, Director Rick Smead takes a look at what lies ahead for shale gas now that it has already reached production levels that the EIA predicted would not happen for another ten years. Many times over the last two years, we have ex¬plored the sudden and dramatic shift of the U.S. nat¬ural gas industry from depleting resource to afford¬able abundance, driven by various unconventional domestic supplies including the enormous shale gas resource. Indeed, since the aggressive estimates and predictions in the 2008 North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment we produced for the Ameri¬can Clean Skies Foundation, reality over the last two years has been even more impressive. Shale gas pro¬duction has moved from an accelerating 3-power curve to a 4-power curve – steeper and faster. A comparison of actual shale gas production to the Energy Information Administration’s forecasts in the 2008 and 2010 Annual Energy Outlooks is truly dra¬matic. Market Notes is a free monthly newsletter covering natural gas hot topics, prices, legislative/regulatory highlights and events.

The Time for (Behavior) Change is Now

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Utilities and governments across the U.S. are starting to realize that their technology-centric energy efficiency programs can benefit from a more thorough understanding of the social and behavioral aspects of energy use. This paper presents the results of a meta-analysis of successful behavior change programs in the energy industry as well as in other fields. There is a growing body of evidence – summarized in this paper – that social incentives can be more effective than financial ones in promoting energy-efficient behaviors and purchase decisions.

Review of the Efficiency Maine Trust Triennial Plan (2011-2013)

Tue, 08 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0500

North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 00:00:00 -0600

As consumers increasingly struggle to keep pace with soaring costs of electricity and gasoline, they are simultaneously bombarded with information suggesting that the end is near for many “conventional” energy sources. Fortunately this is not the case with cleaner-burning, affordable natural gas.

The American Clean Skies Foundation commissioned Navigant to undertake and assessment of the North American Natural Gas Supply. The study was conducted by a team of consultants under the leadership of Directors Rick Smead and Gordon Pickering. Also contributing expert advice and input Ken B. Medlock, III, a fellow in energy studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and an adjunct assistant professor of economics at Rice University.

In July 2008, the North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment was published, estimating that the true recoverable gas was far greater than other published estimates. Today, the EIA’s natural gas estimate is now in-line with the resource levels first stated by Navigant in 2008.

Evaluating Renewable Energy Programs

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:15 -0500

This article by Navigant's Frank Stern, published by Association of Energy Services Professionals, considers whether utility program evaluation skills are applicable to evaluating the impacts of renewable energy programs. They may apply in the case of distributed renewables, but utility-scale renewables are less likely to require similar types of program evaluation. One issue related to utility-scale renewables that has required program evaluation skills is attribution, but obtaining necessary information through interviews with developers may require different skill sets. The author concludes that program evaluators must understand how the markets for renewable energy and energy efficiency differ.

The Sun Devil in the Details: Lessons Learned from Residential HVAC Programs in the Desert Southwest

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:19 -0500

This Navigant report by Kevin Cooney, Marshall Keneipp, Justin Spencer, and Chris Newton examines the driving factors that influence the performance of residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) efficiency programs in the desert southwest. The authors conducted primary field data collection in Phoenix, AZ and Palm Desert, CA in the course of evaluating existing energy efficiency programs. These programs covered a range of measures, including: high efficiency new equipment, early retirement of air conditioning equipment, and equipment sizing for new construction. The resulting studies show that residential HVAC energy efficiency programs need to be designed carefully in order to ensure maximum return on investment. In general, high efficiency equipment retrofits produced lower savings than expected, while early retirement and proper system sizing appear to offer significant benefits. The program design principles presented here can be applied directly to other residential programs in hot, dry climates and can be modified and applied to other regions with high cooling loads. (The report was presented at the International Energy Program Evaluation Conference in Paris, France.)

Building DSM on a Smart Grid Platform

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:14 -0500

In this white paper, Navigant's Daniel M. Violette, Erik Gilbert, and Stuart Schare discuss how the evolution of the Smart Grid will change demand-side management (DSM) efforts in electricity markets. DSM practitioners must play an important role in research and design if the evolving Smart Grid is to deliver promised energy efficiency and demand response benefits. The paper provides background on the impact the Smart Grid project will have on virtually every person and business in the United States as it works to develop an integrated demand-supply electricity market, as well as the Smart Grid investments that are already underway. The Smart Grid has to the potential to change the way customers make decisions about energy use and their investments in energy efficiency, as well as decisions about energy and load management equipment. All of these factors are central to the design of energy efficiency and demand response efforts. In addition, benefit-cost studies of the Smart Grid vision have promised sizeable benefits from energy efficiency and demand response, yet the actual processes by which these benefits would be achieved have not been fully developed.

A Technology Roadmap Towards a Low Carbon Electric System: A Utility's Experience Sharing

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:14 -0500

In this paper, Navigant Consulting's Andrew Kinross and Priscilla Lee, and John W. M. Cheng and Chi Cheung Ngan of CLP Research Institute present one power utility's experience in developing a technology roadmap for the transition to a low carbon electric system based on clean energy and technological innovations to lower carbon emissions. Because there is no one solution for addressing climate change, the utility used a portfolio approach to identify a range of key technologies to achieve low carbon energy, including renewable energy resources, carbon capture and storage, and green and innovative energy services. The authors note that many utilities are facing similar issues and that the power industry as a whole faces challenges associated with climate change, environmental concerns and pressure from regulators for a low carbon environment.

Smart Grid Prioritization Methods

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:18 -0500

In this article for Electric Perspectives, Navigant's Eugene L. Shlatz discusses the challenges utilities face as they invest in smart-grid technology and try to quantify the benefits of these investments. As with any other investment, utilities must demonstrate that these smart grid investments provide both short- and long-term value while meeting the needs of all stakeholders. Shlatz notes that utilities can begin by quantifying the real costs and benefits over the life of the assets in order to make a critical and unbiased comparison to traditional investments. The article describes the various benefits smart-grid technology can bring to both utilities and their customers, then discusses ways to quantify those benefits. A case study compares a portfolio of smart-grid investments to traditional utility investments using life cycle economic evaluation methods and identifies the types of smart-grid projects that tend to provide the highest value.

Energy and Utilities Sector Roundtable

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 10:52:05 -0600

Navigant’s Bill Dickenson joins other energy industry leaders including SNR Denton’s Clint Vince in Financier Worldwide’s December 2010 Energy and Utilities Sector Roundtable discussion. The energy crisis has forced a new age of dynamism on the energy sector, framed by environmental issues and concerns about energy security. While renewables are beginning to enter the mainstream, shale gas has become increasingly lucrative, however, there is debate as to whether the “nuclear renaissance” has, or will ever arrive. Participants discuss major trends in the energy and utilities sector, political influences impacting the direction of energy policy, ways the push for renewable energy is reshaping the sector, and the outlook for climate regulation and legislation.

NG Market Notes - January 2011

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:17 -0500

In the featured article of the January 2011 issue of Navigant’s NG Market Notes newsletter, Director Rick Smead reviews the EIA’s mid-December, early release of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2011. The treatment of natural gas in this issuance showed enormous progress in recognizing the boom in shale development. In fact, I do not recall as substantial a change from AEO to AEO as is reflected for natural gas in this one. In AEO 2011, the EIA has estimated a recoverable resource base of 827 Tcf, within two percent of Navigant’s North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment estimate that first recognized just how big our natural gas resource could be. Market Notes is a free monthly newsletter covering natural gas hot topics, prices, legislative/regulatory highlights and events.

NG Market Notes - February 2011

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:16 -0500

In the featured article of the February 2011 issue of Navigant’s NG Market Notes newsletter, Navigant looks at the impact of our severe winter weather on natural gas prices—or lack there of. As of this writing, the latest in a string of vicious winter storms is predicted to cover half the United States with blowing snow and sub-zero temperatures. For the bal¬ance of winter, the U.S. National Weather Service is forecasting below-normal tem¬peratures and above-normal precipitation (snow) across most of the northern tier of states, including the gas-intensive Great Lakes market area. Natural gas storage inventories are roughly on par with last year’s record levels. Yet prompt prices are slightly lower this year than last, and much lower than two years ago. Market Notes is a free monthly newsletter covering natural gas hot topics, prices, legislative/regulatory highlights and events.

Capacity, prices, and all that solar jazz

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 08:11:49 -0600

In a March 2011 article in Photovoltaics World, Navigant’s Paula Mints analyses the growth and change in photovoltaic technologies. Despite anxiety over future FiT degressions, shipments in 2010 grew at 120% over 2009. Europe consumed 82% of all shipped technology and will continue as the largest market for photovoltaic technologies with rapidly decreasing tariff rates straining margins for manufacturers and system integrators. Historically, manufacturers have increased capacity significantly following years of strong demand, and added capacity more slowly (sometimes changing plans to add capacity) after years of low capacity utilization.

Is 2011 the Watershed Year for Natural Gas?

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:19 -0500

In his bi-monthly article for the Natural Gas and Electricity Journal, Navigant’s Rick takes a look at what the coming year holds for natural gas. Over the last two years, there has been a dramatic shift in the US natural gas industry. In a very short period of time, the industry has transformed from being a declining production and depleting resource business to affordable and sustainable abundance from domestic supplies. This issue provides an in-depth analysis of the rapid growth of shale harvesting, the increasing public concern and low prices, and shale gas exports verses LNG imports. Shale gas production has moved from an accelerating three-power curve to a four-power curve—steeper and faster. A comparison of shale gas production with the 2008 and 2010 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are much more dramatic.

LNG Exports Proposals Raise Concerns – What Is the Right Answer?

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:16 -0500

Navigant Energy Director, Rick Smead’s bi-monthly article written for Natural Gas & Electricity Journal discusses the nations’ newfound natural gas abundance and proposes that a logical outgrowth of that abundance has been not just the severe reduction of importation plans for liquefied natural gas (LNG) but also the formulation of LNG export proposals.

Along those lines, two facilities have made proposals, Sabine and Freeport. Other existing import terminals have indicated publicly that they are exploring the option.

Given the massive apparent capability of the U.S. natural gas industry to bring new supply to market, the industrial community should be able to be confident that the supply-demand balance can stay stable, and thus that prices can stay within a range that can allow industrial users to get what they need.

Solar Photovoltaic & Distributed Generation - Studies at the Forefront of Grid Operational Impact

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:18 -0500

In response to regulatory, environmental and market incentives, the amount of distributed generation (DG) and Utility-Scale solar photovoltaic (PV) generation added to the electric utility grid has grown and is expected to continue to be robust. Until recently, electric utility planners and operators have been able to accommodate most of this new generation without significant impact or expansion of the electric grid. However, there is uncertainty as to how the variability of large-scale wind and PV generation profiles may strain the ability of the grid to integrate and economically and reliably deliver the power. Navigant is now conducting analyses that will address timely and critical issues, including the amount of DG that can be added to the existing distribution grid without compromising reliability or system performance. The results of the distribution study were filed with the Nevada Commission on December 30, 2010, and it identified technical and economic impacts of small PV and small wind generation on NV Energy’s distribution system.

Anaerobic Digestion: Unaddressed Opportunity

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 08:09:07 -0600

Published in Renewable Energy World, this article by Navigant Senior Energy Consultant Haley Sawyer discusses rarely addressed sources of renewable energy. While wind and solar generally grab the lion’s share of headlines on renewable energy, there are less celebrated, untapped renewable energy resources that can be added to the U.S. energy mix a form of waste-to-energy.

California’s Evolving Renewable Portfolio Standard

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 07:39:14 -0500

Navigant experts Dan Bradley, Frank Stern and Fred Wellington presented California's Expanded Renewable Portfolio Standard on an interactive web conference hosted by Infocast.

California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is currently undergoing complex structural changes that can affect the demand for renewable generation going forward. Moreover, utilities will increasingly rely on Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) given recent changes to the RPS regulations being promulgated by the California Public Utilities Commission. This increases the challenges faced by utilities, developers, and investors in understanding the market dynamics, risks and opportunities in this market as well as in developing rational price forecasts for RECs going forward.

The webinar focused on three areas:

» A review of the evolving RPS regulatory landscape in California

» How these changes can impact renewable energy development

» How the underlying market structure can affect REC trading and valuation